Saturday, January 3, 2004

Sunnis Protest Mosque Raid



There was a large (1000 to 1500 strong) demonstration in the Yarmouk quarter of Baghdad against a US raid on two mosques in the district on Friday. The Guardian reported that Iraqi police and US troops raided the Ibn Taimiyah Mosque in the southwestern Yarmouk quarter of Baghdad on Thursday and arrested its prayer leader, Shaikh Mahdi Salah al-Sumaidi, a member of the Supreme Council for Religious Guidance along with 20 of his helpers. The US military spokesman maintained that they found a large weapons cache in the mosque, not only machine guns but also rocket propelled grenades.



The US says that it had received many tips over the past few months that the mosque was being used as a weapons storehouse by guerrillas. The siege and operation lasted 7 hours. On Friday, US troops carried out a similar raid on the Umm al-Tubul Mosque in Yarmouk, arresting the shaikh and 34 others. The mosque was the site of a meeting of the religious Sunni Arab leadership. Many machine guns and other munitions were found. The US maintained, according to az-Zaman /AFP that some of those arrested were not Iraqis. Abd al-Sattar al-Janibi, deputy head of the Supreme council for the Sunnis, admitted that there had been weapons in the mosque, but said that all Iraqi mosques had weapons in them intended for self defense given the poor security situation. Rifles, I could believe. But an anti-aircraft missile and grenades?



Still, the US Army could have done itself a favor here by just sending in Iraqi police to do this job and not having GIs invade a mosque.



Ibn Taimiyah (1268-1328). (for whom one of the mosques was named), by the way, was a horrible person and an important source of intellectual bigotry in the subsequent Sunni tradition, who has been revived and made a hero by Sunni Islamists in modern times. If I were involved in counter-insurgency I'd pretty much have all buildings named after Ibn Taimiyah searched. But let Iraqis do it.



More Ethnic Violence in Kirkuk



AP reported that in the northern, mainly Arab city of Mosul, on Wednesday assailants kidnapped and killed Adel Jabar Abid Mustafa, a Baathist whom Saddam had appointed dean of the faculty of political science at Mosul University. Thursday morning his body was found; he had been killed Mafia-style, two bullets in the head. There have been a number of unsolved assassinations in Mosul lately, with some victims having been anti-Baathists and others former Baathists. This pattern suggests that underground gangs or clans are engaged in vendettas about the past.



AP said that in Kirkuk on Thursday night, armed Arabs killed one Kurd and wounded another as they strolled through an Arab quarter of the city, according to Police Chief Gen. Turhan Youssef.



Az-Zaman reported that Shirku Shakir, a high police official in Kirkuk, said that an Arab protest was held late Thursday that resulted in an exchange of fire with the police, who took one wounded Arab gunman prisoner. Shakir said another body was found in the vicinity of the protest and the shoot-out, but declined to give his ethnicity. Jalal Jawhar, local head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party, said that two Arabs were killed and several wounded in this incident, according to AP.



All of these incidents follow on the Kurdish parties' demand that Kirkuk be incorporated into an expanded Kurdish ethnic enclave in the north, which would enjoy substantial states' rights from a loose federal government in Baghdad.



Thursday night, representatives of the Coalition Provisional Authority met with ethnic community leaders in Kirkuk and asked them to strive to reduce tension (al-Zaman).



AP also noted that ' At Friday prayers, firebrand Shiite cleric Muqdata al-Sadr spoke against any federal system, saying it "is meant to divide the country according to their interests." He apparently was referring to Kurdish interests when he spoke at Kufa mosque, just outside the southern city of Najaf. ' The hostility to loose federalism and the devotion to a strong central government is characteristic of the major Shiite parties across the board.



Daniel Senor of the CPA dismissed the events in Kirkuk as "isolated incidents," and said that reprisals against Baathists had been relatively few. He pointed out that thousands of Fascists had been killed in reprisals in Italy after World War II.



It is always a bad sign when political spokesmen try to schmooze journalists into thinking that anything less than 20,000 deaths is not significant. I certainly hope the press corps can see through that ploy. But in addition, Senor's point does not even make any sense. The events in Kirkuk were not reprisals against Baathists. They were ethnic fighting over the future of the city. Historical analogies are always misleading, but if you had to compare them to something, it would to post-Soviet Eastern Europe, and the question is whether we are dealing with Bratislava, Slovakia (peaceful splitting from the Czech Republic)) or with Bosnia in spring of 1992. In the latter, a multiethnic society was subsequently torn apart.



The reason the events in Kirkuk may be significant is that something will have to be done with the city. Either it will be left as the capital of at-Tamim Province and the 250,000 Arabs transplanted to it will be allowed to stay in the homes Saddam stole from the Turkmen and Kurds to give to them; or it will, as the Kurds demand, be transferred to a new Kurdistan province that will unite in itself at-Tamim, Dahuk, Arbil, Sulaimaniya, and Diyala (Diyala is a stretch). Either decision, to leave things as they are or to change things, is going to make some part of the population fighting mad, and they all have guns (a lot of them seem to have rocket propelled grenades).



So the fact that there haven't been large scale reprisals against the Arabs in Kirkuk is certainly positive, but the fact is that Kurds have been streaming back into the city and it is early days. That ethnic conflict came to a low boil as soon as the Kurds so much as mentioned their plan to annex Kirkuk is a very bad sign for the future Iraqi government's stability (the CPA will carefully avoid taking a decision before July 1, so as not to risk provoking major violence on its watch). Though, since the US plans to have an embassy in Baghdad with 3,000 personnel, even decisions of the new Iraqi government will in a way be on its watch.



30 Bulgarians Refuse to Serve



AFP reports that 30 Bulgarian soldiers in a 500-man battalion scheduled to go to Iraq have refused to serve there. A recent attack by guerrillas in Karbala wounded 64 Bulgarian troops and killed 4. AFP said, "Members of the replacement battalion on Friday demanded that a clause be written into their contracts stipulating that they can at any time pull out of the mission and return home, the radio reported." Service in Iraq is voluntary. There are likely to be growing such controversies among the coalition of the willing should there be further attacks like that in Karbala.

Friday, January 2, 2004

6 US troops wounded Weds.; Bomb blast in Baghdad Kills 8 Iraqis



AP reported that on Wednesday, a bomb hidden in foliage outside a Baghdad restaurant exploded as a US army convoy passed. The guerrillas wounded 3 American soldiers and 3 Iraqi civilians, and killed an Iraq bystander. On Wednesday, as well, guerrillas set off a roadside bomb, inflicting minor injuries on 3 US troops, and killing an Iraqi boy.



Also on Wednesday, a huge car bomb went off in front of the posh Nabil's Restaurant in the upscale Karrada neighborhood, killing 8 Iraqis and wounding 35 persons (three LA Times reporters were cut by flying glass). Although many Western observers speculated that this bombing was a new tactic by the guerrillas, insofar as it concentrated on a soft, wholly Iraqi target, this tactic is not new. There have been attacks on Shiites, in, e.g. Najaf. Guerrillas have killed dozens of Iraqis when it suited their purpose, which is to raise the cost of cooperating politically with the US. Karrada was probably hit because it was seen as full of pro-American compradors.
Top 5 Tasks Remaining in 2004 in the War on Terror



US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld worried in a memo last fall that the US lacks a "metric" or a means of measuring success in the war on terror. If he does not have one, then I certainly do not. But as someone who has studied the Middle East and the Muslim world for over thirty years, and who first lived there 38 years ago, I have a good idea of what would help.





5. The US must work harder to stabilize Pakistan and to achieve peace between India and Pakistan. A stronger Pakistani democracy will lessen US dependence on one man, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, against whom two major assassination attempts have recently been launched. The Kashmir issue is a major source of terrorism, and is now a nuclear flashpoint. The safety of all Americans is imperilled by the continued boiling of ethnic conflict there. If India and Pakistan were at real peace with one another, their borders and roads would open. Truckers could take merchandise from New Delhi to Islamabad, and thence to Kabul and Tashkent. A Central Asian cross-continental trade between Korea and China in the East, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in Central Asia, and Pakistan and India in South Asia could reinvigorate the economies of the region, benefitting Afghanistan and helping stabilize it. In contrast, allowing the Kashmir issue to remain unresolved threatens terrorism, war, and possibly even a nuclear exchange.



4. The US must invest more heavily in stabilizing and rebuilding Afghanistan. The Taliban are resurgent, the government weak and divided, and most of the country in the hands of regional clan leaders. The standard of living is among the lowest in the world. The Bush administration forgot to ask Congress for an Afghanistan appropriation for 2003, and some savvy Senators ensured it got at least $300 mn. Worried about the 2004 elections, the Bush administration has now pledged $1 bn. for reconstruction. But Bush spent $166 bn. and climbing on Iraq! Instability and extremism in Afghanistan are proven threats to the safety of Americans, whereas Iraq never directly hit the US. Letting Afghanistan fall apart or limp along as a fourth world nation is most unwise.



3. Iraq must be given a stable and united government. Allowing it to split up into three parts would guarantee future terrorism. The Sunni Arabs would be left poor and without a petroleum income, and would watch as the Kurds (1000 wellheads) and Shiite Arabs (500 wellheads) got rich. They would have every reason to try to take Kirkuk, where they are about a third of the population or more, by force, to get its 100 wellheads and its pipelines. If they failed, they would be left without a visible means of income, and would quickly become poorer than Jordanians. Their resentments would fuel massive terrorism in the Middle East that would almost certainly eventually touch the US.



2. The US must capture Osama Bin Laden, Saad Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, Saif al-Adil, and other top al-Qaeda leaders, of both the older and the younger generations. This task was far more important for the immediate security of those of us who live in the US than conquering Iraq, and it was highly irresponsible to undertake the latter before accomplishing the former.



1. The US must step in to settle the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. The festering violence in the Mideast produces anti-Americanism and anti-American violence throughout the region. Most Americans have bought Likud party propaganda about the nature of the conflict.



In fact, Israelis are gobbling up Palestinian land at an alarming rate, and have more than doubled the number of their settlers in the West Bank and Gaza since they signed the Oslo Accords (which had implied that they would give back most of the Palestinian territories and allow the Palestinians their own state). Muslims all over the world identify with the Palestinians, and feel humiliated that the Israelis can piecemeal destroy their hope of living in dignity as a people with impunity (indeed, with the de facto acquiescence of the US).



That a small number of Palestinians has replied to the Israeli assault on them with violence against Israeli civilians is both morally wrong and bad political strategy. It does not change the fact that the Israelis are the ones who are gaining territory at the Palestinians' expense. It also does not excuse a series of Israeli war crimes in the Occupied Territories, which include using US-supplied F-16s to fire missiles into a civilian, occupied apartment building in order to assassinate a Hamas leader (both the pilot and Ariel Sharon should be tried for this heinous act and others like it, which killed many civilians, including a baby).



Americans all know how much US citizens identified with the little band at the Alamo back in the 1830s, and how much they despised Mexico for opposing them. For the Muslim world, Palestine is the Alamo, and the Israelis and the US together play Santa Ana. Would it have done any good for the president of the Mexican Republic to have sent performers across the border to explain how well Americans were treated in Mexico, or to point to Mexico's progressive laws? A Public Relations campaign could never have made Santa Ana popular after he abolished states' rights and attacked San Antonio.



September 11 was deeply intertwined with the expulsion of the Palestinians from their land and the resentments it has fostered. The idea that the hijackers did not care about the Palestine issue is pure propaganda. The occupation of Jerusalem by the Israelis is a constant, recurring theme in al-Qaeda communiqués. We Americans are friends of Israel and will stand by it in the face of aggressors who want to destroy it. But Israel does not own the West Bank and Gaza. The UN never granted them to it. They are mere spoils of war, and territorial conquest is forbidden in the United Nations Charter. We don't need any more US buildings blown up because our government is coddling cuckoo settlers who are stealing other people's land to fulfill some weird religious power fantasy.

Thursday, January 1, 2004

Bremer and CPA "Extremely Offended" at Call for UN Role



A member of the Interim Governing Council, Mahmoud Osman, told al-Hayat newspaper that the Coalition Provisional Authority was extremely offended by the IGC's call for the United Nations to play a role in the transition to Iraqi sovereignty. He said that Washington id not want any international actor to participate in this process. It wants to reap the benefits in order to increase President Bush's stock on the eve of the US presidential elections.



He told the London daily, "The fundamental issue for Iraqis is the return of sovereignty. The Americans are in a hurry for it, as well, though for their own interests. The important thing for the Americans is to ensure the reelection of George Bush. The achievement of a specific accomplishment in Iraq, such as the transfer of power, increases, in the eyes of the Republican Party, the chances that Bush will be reelected."



Osman, himself a Kurd, denied that the IGC had given guarantees to the Kurds in support of their demand for a loose federation. He also rejected the idea of keeping the Interim Governing Council and turning it into a senate. He admitted that the IGC was not fully representative, and insisted that Sunnis were under-represented, a fault he hoped the forthcoming elections would correct. (The IGC currently is split 50/50 Sunni and Shiite, whereas in actuality the Shiites are probably 65% of the population). He also said he did not have a problem with Baathists serving in the new parliament, as long as they had not committed crimes.



Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani has repeatedly called for a UN role in Iraqi elections, and plans are being made for representatives of the IGC to meet with UN officials on the issue.

Ethnic Violence in Kurdistan Boils Over; 3 Dead on Thursday, 5 Dead on Wednesday



On Thursday, Kirkuk Police Chief Turhan Yusuf said, "Unknown attackers stabbed two Kurds to death and threw their bodies near a bridge in the centre of the city." This act was presumably in revenge for the shooting of 3 Arabs by Kurdish militiamen on Wednesday (see below). His deputy, Shirzad Rifaat Qadir, reported that Kirkuk police killed an Arab man and wounded two others in an attempt to prevent them from attacking Kurds.



Al-Hayat said that the head of the general hospital in Kirkuk, Hashim Muhammad, announced that on Wednesday three Iraqis were killed and 31 wounded (6 of them gravely) by gunfire from Peshmerga Kurdish militiamen. The militiamen fired on Arab and Turkmen demonstrators, said to number about 1,000, protesting Kurdish demands that Kirkuk be absorbed into a Kurdish super-province. Demonstrator Ali Husain Muhammad, one of those wounded, said, "The reason the peshmerga opened fire is that the demonstrators began shouting slogans containing slurs against the Kurds . . ." Among the chants was "There is no god but God; Kurdistan is the enemy of God!" Arab and Turkmen political groupings demanded that the US civil administration open an investigation into the incident.



Kirkuk, with an estimated population of 730,000, is among Iraq's 5 largest cities. It is a center of the oil industry, has light textiles, and is a local agricultural entrepot. The city has Kurds, Sunni Arabs, Sunni and Shiite Turkmen, and Chaldean and Assyrian Christians. Some 100,000 Kurds and Turkmen were expelled from the city in recent years by Saddam. Last spring, Preston Mendenhall in his War Diary from Iraq maintained that the city was comprised as of April 2003 of one third Arabs, one third Turkmen and one third Kurds. It is not clear, however, how many Kurds have returned to Kirkuk in the past 8 months, and how many Arabs have been quietly expelled south (the number is reported to be in the thousands).