Iraq War would bring increase in Terrorism: Oxford Report



Jane Merrick of the Press Association reported that the Oxford Research Group believes and Iraq war will increase terrorism by al-Qaeda against the United States. It believes that 10,000 civilians will die in an American attack on Iraq. Paul Rogers, a professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University, said that Saddam would likely use chemical and biological weapons in the war. He foresaw an increase in support for al-Qaeda as a backlash against the war in the region.



Rogers thinks Saddam will try to draw the war out and make it as costly as possible for the Americans. "Almost certainly, the dominant strand of thinking within the Saddam Hussein regime is the imperative for survival. This must not be underestimated - it transcends every other objective."



Meanwhile, evidence mounts of Serbian-Bosnian involvement in supplying military materiel to Iraq.



And, at the United Nations, France is now calling for a meeting of the foreign ministers of the Security Council states, to hammer out a compromise resolution on weapons inspections in Iraq. The US has been pressing for a resolution that would be broad enough to authorize military action without the necessity of coming back to the council. Russia and France are strongly resisting such language.

Fate of Iraqi Political Prisoners Unknown



Iraqi organizations and notables in London have called on the Iraqi government to account for what they claim are tens of thousands of political prisoners. These were supposed to have been released in the general amnesty bestowed during the past week, but they were not. (Reported by Asharq al-Awsat).



Thousands of university professors, Shi`ite clerics, Kurds, Iraqis of Iranian extraction, and dissidents have disappeared in Iraq since 1980, especially during the uprisings of March, 1991, in the wake of the Gulf War.



The call for a full accounting of the 'disappeared' and imprisoned was launched by Muhammad Bahr al-`Ulum and `Alam al-Din in London. Iraqi expatriates also addressed appeals to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to ensure that Security Council Resolution 688 requiring the Iraqi regime to ensure human rights for its citizens be implemented.



The odiousness of the Saddam Hussein regime and the fact that it has killed or imprisoned so many are among the things that make it hard for me to take a strong stand against the idea of regime change.



In other Iraq news, President Bush said in Mexico City that he is willing to go to war with Iraq without a mandate from the UN Security Council.



Earth to George: This would be a Very Bad Idea.

Abu Qatadah Arrested-- Key Figure in al-Qaeda



The Palestinian cleric Umar Muhammad Abu Umar ("Abu Qatada"), 40, was

arrested in a Wednesday raid on a council house in Bermondsey, south

London. Suspected by many European authorities of being a key figure in

al-Qaeda, he and his family had been missing since last December.



British authorities tracked him down after he published on the internet a treatise

called, "The Legal Vision for the September 11 Events," which attempted to

provide justification for those monstrous attacks.



He had links with Usama Bin Laden, and videos of his sermons were found

in the Hamburg apartment of hijacker Muhammad Atta. The British inability

to find him had provoked strains with France in recent months, and the French

even speculated that MI5 had him in a safe house somewhere.



Jordan also wants to extradite him, for funding terrorism, and he has been

sentenced to death in absentia there (he has Jordanian citizenship).



British courts have ruled that foreigners may be indefinitely held in prison under

the provisions of the new anti-terrorism law. Some 10 Muslim radicals are being

held at the moment, including Abu Qatada.



He has links to the Tawhid organization in Germany, and was implicated in the

funding of a Spanish terrorist cell that has now been broken up. He has given

vicious rulings or fatwas justifying the killing of the wives and children of any

Algerians who oppose the fundamentalists there.



In other words, this is a very dangerous character who appears to have fingers

in several terrorist operations and who has provided material support to them.

I'm glad he's finally in jail.

More on Pakistan's Elections



I just wanted to emphasize that I was not at all critizing the

moves for restoration of democracy in Pakistan in my op-ed.





What I was criticizing was the contradictions in the process. General

Musharraf unilaterally amended the constitution 29 times last summer. He

placed extreme constraints on campaigning. Pakistan People's Party

campaign workers were arrested for doing whistlestop campaigning from a

train. The European Union observers report that the government polling

officials rigged the process so as to attempt to favor the pro-Musharraf

party, the Muslim League (QA). The government poured heaps of scorn on

the two major mainstream parties, the PPP and the Muslim League (N), the

latter of which had been overthrown in a military coup by Musharraf in

1999.





I do not believe that the fundamentalist parties would have done nearly as

well in a free and open election. It seems to me that in the Pushtun

regions in particular, the electorate felt that the PPP and the ML (N)

were being so determinedly marginalized by the military that one would be

throwing away one's vote in choosing them. And, the Draconian

restrictions on canvassing prevented these two parties from mobilizing

their grassroots effectively there. These had been the dominant parties

in the NWFP, after all. So, the Pushtuns, prevented from mild protest,

chose a much more extreme form of fundamentalist protest against

Musharraf's policies.





I think open democratic processes would have marginalized the religious

extremists, and that by playing Ahab to the great white whale of the

PPP/ML (N) status quo, Musharraf shot himself in the foot and produced a

hung parliament with a substantial fundamentalist representation. And, I

don't think the US put enough pressure on Musharraf to hold free and open

elections.





The theory may have been that such pressure might destabilize a valued

ally in the War on Terror. But the PPP had supported the latter effort,

and marginalizing it just allowed parties that opposed it to step into the

breach.





And, from what I can tell, the Bush administration policies of pursuing an

Iraq war, of only tepid engagement in resolving Kashmir, and of almost

complete neglect of the Israel/Palestine issue contributed heavily to the

protest vote against Musharraf, who was willy nilly yoked to those

policies.





There wasn't too much democracy this round in Pakistan. There was too

little. And, for Musharraf to try to continue to rule as a mere strongman

would have set the stage for massive protests. At least this way, Pushtun

discontent can be worked into parliamentary maneuvering instead of

violence, as Najeeb Jan rightly intimated.

Petition for Palestinian Children



A wonderful Israeli organization called Taayush or "living together" has launched a petition drive concerning the dire state of education for Palestinian children under Israeli occupation.



The petition can be found at:



http://taayush.tripod.com/petition.html



and it reads as below. I hope everyone will go sign it, and send money to Taayush.



Don't Abandon the Children

If you wish to sign the petition please fill the form below and press submit.

The Right to Education is Under Attack!

We, the undersigned, educators, psychologists, social workers --

people who are working for the welfare of children -- decry the

violations being committed against the well-being and

the basic right to education of Palestinian children.

Nearly one quarter of a million Palestinian children and close

to ten thousand teachers cannot reach their schools.

Approximately six hundred educational institutions have been closed

due to the continued curfew.*

Many children are exposed to danger and endless difficulties

as they make their way to school. Great injury, and perhaps even

irreversible harm, is being done to a whole generation -- the generation of the future.

Take, for example, the South Hebron cave dwellers' children,

one third of whom have dropped out of school. For months,

Jewish settlers from Maon have prevented the children from

reaching their school. The settlers have thrown stones,

harassed, and hit children who have dared to cross the path

leading to their school (the Maon settlement was built very close

to these educational facilities).

A few children have needed medical attention as a result of

wounds incurred by the stones. When parents accompanied

their children on their way to school, the police came to the

aid of the settlers, arresting the parents. In order to avoid settler

violence, the children have been forced to walk at least seven

kilometers to school, using a long detour, which takes about two hours.

Not all children can handle such long distances.

Not Surprisingly, most of the 'drop-outs' are among the youngest

children -- six and seven year olds. What will become of these children?

Education and child welfare are of utmost importance to us,

the undersigned, and we call upon the Israeli government to:

1) Immediately open the Palestinian educational institutions;

2) Stop settler intimidation and harassment;

3) Ensure that the children and teachers will safely reach

their schools so they can enjoy the basic right to education.





* According to UNICEF more than 226,000 children and

over 9,300 teachers are unable to reach their regular classrooms

and at least 580 schools have been closed due to Israeli

military curfews, closures and home confinement.

For more information on Ta'ayush -- Arab-Jewish Partnership --

visit our WebSite http://taayush.tripod.com/

Parliamentary Maneuvering in Pakistan



It is being speculated in the Pakistani press that the Muslim League (QA) may be able to form a government if it allies with absolutely all of the small parties and independent members of parliament. It could cobble together a majority of seats, and would benefit from the plan to add women's slots proportionally, bringing the total to 190.



This move would allow the Muslim League (QA) to avoid an alliance with its rival, the Pakistan People's Party, or with the MMA, the coalition of fundamentalist religious parties.



While the mathematics may barely work out for the ML (QA), the resulting government would be extremely fragile. It would also be open to blackmail on the part of the tiny parties and even perhaps some individual members of parliament, since it would need virtually all its myriad partners for every important vote.



It seems to me likely that such a government would fall before too long, requiring another round of elections. This further round may or may not produce a more stable government. Were it to be called at a time, this winter, when the US had gone to war against Iraq, one can only imagine that the fundamentalist parties might just manage to win a majority of votes and take over the civilian government. This development in turn would almost certainly provoke another military coup to prevent it from happening. The secular-leaning Musharraf, now an American ally, would be at severe risk from an MMA government, and he would not likely take the risk.



Forecast: Continued political instability in Pakistan, raising real questions about the further prosecution of the War on Terror.

History News Network



[http://hnn.us/articles/1053.html]



10-21-02: News Abroad



Why Those Election Results in Pakistan Are Frightening



by Juan Cole





The results of the elections held in Pakistan on October 10 have cast a shadow over the Bush administration's foreign policy. That policy has been driven by contradictory impulses -- curbing Islamic extremism, promoting democracy, beating the drums of war, and supporting dictatorial regimes friendly to the United States. The Pakistani electorate has pointed out the inconsistencies.



When we hear that Iraqis will "dance in the streets" on being liberated by American forces, we should remember that members of the Pushtun ethnic group in Pakistan have not celebrated the fall of the Taliban. When we hear that it may be necessary for the US to impose a strong ruler on Iraq initially, in preparation for democracy, we should remember that the Pakistani electorate has resoundingly rejected strongman Gen. Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan.



When we hear that it is a good idea to overthrow and marginalize the secular nationalist regimes of the Middle East, we should remember Pakistan. There, sidelining the Pakistan People's Party and the mainstream Muslim League gave an opening to fundamentalists and radical Islamists who look kindly on al-Qaeda.



When we hear that a US-shaped democratic Iraq will be a beacon to the rest of the Middle East, we should remember that a democratizing Pakistan has largely returned anti-American candidates. They oppose an Iraq war and are bitter about what they see as US backing for Israeli PM Ariel Sharon's brutal repression of the Palestinians. European Union observers criticized the election as rigged toward pro-government candidates, so that the electorate may be even more bitterly anti-American and anti-Musharraf than the results show.



The Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan will be ruled by a coalition of fundamentalist Muslim parties, the Islamic Action Council (Urdu acronym: MMA). They are, as well, the largest bloc in the provincial assembly of Baluchistan. This coalition emerged as the third largest bloc in the national parliament, winning around 45 seats out of 272 contested. They were able overwhelmingly to attract Pushtun voters upset with the U.S. attack on Afghanistan. The religious parties had only won two seats in parliament in the 1997 elections.



The elections returned a hung parliament, so that one of the more secular parties may need to bring the MMA in to form a ruling coalition. Musharraf much weakened the mainstream politicians by deriding them as corrupt. Worrisomely, the fundamentalist parties may form a crucial swing vote on some issues in a divided parliament. They have already announced that they will attempt to end coeducation in schools, including universities (implying that women in the Northwest Frontier will have to go to small, inadequate women's institutes for any higher education they are allowed to seek).



The leaders of the fundamentalist parties had campaigned vigorously in winter of 2002 against the U.S. war in Afghanistan. They had called for the overthrow of Musharraf. Among their leaders, Qazi Hussein Ahmad has called for an end to the manhunt for al-Qaeda and Taliban elements hiding out in the Northwest Frontier, since they are "Muslim brethren." The religious parties want US troops and FBI agents kicked out of Pakistan.



The United States cannot win its goals in the Muslim world merely by main force. Its support of democracy will have to be wholehearted if instability of the Pakistani sort is to be avoided. How will General Musharraf cohabit with a parliament largely hostile to him? The idea bruited in Washington circles of imposing a new Hashemite king on Iraq, always hare-brained, looks especially unwise in the aftermath of the Pakistan elections.



In the new democracies it says it is fostering, the Bush administration will have to court constituencies. It cannot turn a blind eye to global flash points like Palestine and Kashmir, where Muslims feel they are being massacred and repressed. It cannot identify itself with dictators. It cannot allow the marginalization by those dictators of secular, populist parties. It cannot afford to be seen as an aggressor acting unilaterally against a Muslim country. The need for strong U.N. Security Council backing for any Iraq war is even more urgent now.



The Pakistan election results should be a wake-up call to the Bush administration.